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General
July 25, 2025

The Shadow Fleet Fig Leaf Falls Off

Russia has been using its Shadow Fleet to hide its sanciton breaking efforts, with the vessels involved puportedly being run by independent companies. The lie behind this effort was bared dramatically in May, in the waters off Estonia, when the Russian military exposed their involvement.

We have previously written about a tranche of data concerning the Shadow Fleet, which was sent to us. This included a list of vessels which we believe form part of the Shadow Fleet, one of which being a tanker called 'Jaguar'. This vessel had already been sanctioned by the UK in early May, and later in the month was observed by Estonian authorities operating in a suspicious fashion within their waters.

The Estonian military dispatched vessels to carry out checks on the Jaguar, which apparently refused to comply with orders to halt course or allow boarding. In apparent response to this, a Russian Su-35 intervened, passing low over the vessels involved. According to the Estonian Foreign Minister, Margus Tsahkna, this involved the fighter jet violating the countries airspace in its efforts to intervene. Ultimately the Jaguar was allowd to proceed, and was monitored till it passed into Russian waters.

The Esonian foreign minister later said "we need to understand that Russia has officially tied and connected itself to the Russian 'Shadow Fleet'" and "(the) Russian Federation is ready to protect the 'Shadow Fleet'... The situation is really serious". This sentiment was echoed by teh French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot, who stated that "military action" (in response to sanctions enforcement) "is a testament to the level of the threat that we're facing on the Eastern flank of NATO".

The brazen intervention by Russia's Military, has exposed the facade of independence surrounding these vessels, revealing a clear link to the Russian state. The international community must remain vigilant in enforcing sanctions and be prepared to respond to the growing threat posed by Moscow's tactics.