Tensions are rising between Prigozhin, The Russian Ministry of Defense, and the Kremlin as small and strategically **'Insignificant'** gains are made on the eastern front.

### Tensions Build
Russian forces have been on the eastern front for over 8 months now and have only just taken their first apparent 'strategic' settlement of Soledar. But was it conventional Russian forces that 'succeeded'? Or was it the Private Military Company, Wagner, that took the settlement by attrition and numbers, sacrificing potentially up to 10,000 men for the settlement. NOTE - The capture of Soledar was not the primary objective on the eastern front. Bakhmut was and still is the primary objective for Russia. Soledar was meant to allow a partial encirclement of Bakhmut leading to its capture by Russian forces. This is not possible and will not happen due to: up to 10,000 Wagner mercenaries being killed rendering the next advance on Bakhmut almost impossible due to lack of numbers, and the main 'strategic' choke points have not been captured in the Soledar area, meaning Bakhmut is not and will not be encircled.

### What is Going On?
On January 12, the Russian MoD publicly praised the assault and army aviation, missile and artillery groups, and airborne VDV forces for capturing Soledar. There was no mention of Wagner. Until 6 hours later when another MoD statement was made recognizing Wagner volunteers and Assault Detachments for helping secure residential areas. This probably upset Prigozhin who now appears to be carrying out his own information operations on the Russian MoD, the Kremlin, and his President. It isn't just one way though. As the illegal yet conventional war continues in Ukraine, a modern social media vs. conventional media war is being waged in Russia and online. Prigozhin and Putin are at the heart of it.

## Recent Events of Prigozhin, Putin, and the MoD

### What Has Prigozhin Done Recently Then?
- Prigozhin seems to be using Soledar as a bargaining chip to elevate his authority in Russia. The MoD initially claimed conventional Russian forces victory, with no mention of Wagner. They then backtracked and acknowledged them - it appears as though the MoD are struggling to keep their messaging in order.
- Prigozhin played on questions put to him by journalists regarding his future meeting with Putin where he said he would look to discuss Wagner's success in taking Soledar. This undermines Gerasimov and Shoigu and the whole Russian MoD.
- Prigozhin personally visited Soledar in the days leading up to the seizure of the settlement, capitalizing on the media presence and taking photos of him with his Wagner mercenaries allegedly 'advancing'.
- He pre-empted the announcement by the Russian MoD on January 12 by accusing unnamed bureaucrats and government officials of "constantly trying to steal the victory from Wagner PMC". The MoD did indeed then claim full victory with no mention of Wagner forces.
- Milbloggers. both independent and Wagner affiliated churned out articles heavily criticizing the Russian MoD for its reporting and handling of the Soledar 'victory'. The Russian MoD being beaten by an illegal PMC at information warfare?
- Openly argued against the Russian MoD's latest Operational Security update regarding the new guidelines for Russian troops in Ukraine that restrict the use of smartphones and set strict guidelines for soldiers' beards. Prigozhin claimed that beards are customary for many Muslim and Orthodox Christian fighters and claimed that soldiers' use of smartphones was necessary in modern combat.
- Called out members of Putin's Presidential Administration on telegram on January 18 claiming some members are traitors for not wanting to ban YouTube as they want Russia to fail in Ukraine so that a dialogue can be opened with the US.

![Yevgeny Prigozhin](/uploads/Yevgeny_Prigozhin_f1c514d14c.png)

### Putin Reacts
- Ordered United Russia Part Central Executive Committee Head Alexander Sidyakin, United Russia State Duma parliamentarian Artyom Turovyi, and Donetsk People Republic Head Denis Pushilin met with multiple milbloggers on January 13. He's trying to gather support from his own milbloggers.
- On January 15, Putin publicly attributed the success on the Soledar frontline to the Russian MoD and General Staff. He did this using his favorit means of mass messaging, live television - the form of media that he relied on most throughout his early days in power. Maybe he doesn't know how to use Telegram, or Twitter (or he doesn't have a VPN?). This public acknowledgment is odd. He has never commented on small 'tactical' advances in Ukraine. Is he nervous that Prigozhin has a hold over the media? Is he trying to flex and regain control?
- Putin seems to be increasingly siding with Prigozhin's adversaries more often, likely in order to degrade Prigozhin's influence through Russia and amongst the Ground Forces oeprating illegally in Ukraine. On January 18, Putin met with St. Petersburg Governor Alexander Beglov - an enemy of Prigozhin (ISW) - to discuss St. Petersburg's role in the war in Ukraine. NOTE - Prigozhin has previously launched a campaign petitioning for the removal of Beglov from his office for treason for failing to support the Russian war effort. Prigozhin-affiliated outlets published exposes on Beglov claiming he had deliberately impeded the advertising efforts for recruitment into the three St. Petersburg local battalions.
- He continues to double down on the official rhetoric that only conventional Russian forces captured Soledar, publicly rejecting Prigozhin's claims that Wagner played a part in the small 'tactical' victory.

![Yevgeny Prigozhin and Putin](/uploads/Yevgeny_Prigozhin_and_Putin_881a87028c.png)

### MoD Being Told What To Do? By Who?
- On January 15, alongside Putin's television address, the Russian MoD continued to report that VDV units were attacking Ukrainian positions with no mention of Wagner in the briefings.
- Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov noted in his January 16 briefing that the conflict is a "product of information manipulation" and that there manipulations may come from Russia's 'enemies', they may also be coming from the Kremlin's 'friends' - any need to beat around the bush? Just name Prigozhin. And what did Prigozhin have to say about this? Did he deny and assert that there was no bad blood between the Russian MoD and Wagner? No, he continued his tactic of providing vague messaging to create more unrest and increased discussion in the Russian information space. Interestingly, on January 15, he awarded a medal to a Wagner mercenary who had previously been given the medal of courage from Putin.

![Gerasimov and Shoigu](/uploads/Gerasimov_and_Shoigu_212fd8e077.png)

### So What Next?
Russia is waging an illegal war in Ukraine and an information war online. Can Putin and Prigozhin, the MoD and Wagner keep up on both fronts? The more this continues, the greater the tension builds, and then what? Does Prigozhin have enough support from his milbloggers, journalists, and Russian citizens to continue his information war online? The tensions of war appear to be enough to break up even the closest of friends. Who would have thought that a President and his former hot-dog vendor best friend could fall out.

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Tensions are rising between Prigozhin, The Russian Ministry of Defense, and the Kremlin as small and strategically 'Insignificant' gains are made on the eastern front.

Rising Tensions

### Congratulations
On September 30, the President of Burkina Faso Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba was removed in a coup d'etat by his own military colleague Ibrahim Traore. Damiba was in power for just 8 months, after he had previously removed President Roch Marc Christian Kabore...in a coup.

This is the 10th coup in Burkina Faso since the country gained its independence in 1960. It's odd though, as this time around there were Russian flags being waved in the streets. Did Prigozhin or the Kremlin have something to do with this?

As you can imagine, this act was met with condemnation from the UN, African Union, the European Union and the West African confederation ECOWAS. Yevgeny Prigozhin however, praised Traore announcing "I congratulate and support Captain Ibrahim Traore...he is a truly worthy and courageous son of his homeland". He may well have had something to do with this.

It doesn't appear as though there were any overt influence campaigns being carried out by Wagner in Burkina Faso. However a look into the online stats and analytics on social media show that more was happening in cyberspace than on the ground.

### Analysis
The Africa Data and Democracy Observatory (ADDO) carried out research and highlighted a number of findings:
- Coordinated campaigns were run ahead of the coup targeting the previous President with narratives suggesting that the existing junta were collaborating with the French when they should be seeking a new relationship with Russia, or the Wagner group, as they are anti-colonial. The campaign cited Wagner's alleged 'successful' role in Mali.
- Growing support for Wagner was observed from nano-influencers. TikTok streamers posted content claiming how 'great' Wagner or other Russian involvement would be in Burkina Faso to counter apparent French colonial influence. They appeared to explicitly criticize then-President Damiba as a French puppet. 
- A Pro-Kremlin Russian Telegram channel posted messages claiming that 'Niger and its uranium mines are next in line'. This appears to imply that Russia will be moving onto Niger next after 'successfully' assisting with the coup in Burkina Faso.

![Wagner Operations in Africa](/uploads/Wagner_Operations_in_Africa_7c0e2004a2.png)

### Social Media Tracking
The ADDO tracked articles that were posted in local media and related to Russia before the coup (1 June 2022 - 29 September 2022). Here's what they discovered:
- There were several key spikes
- 21 June 22 - Pro-Russian demonstration at Place Tiefo Amoro.
- 6 July 22 - Large number of articles published online due to the council of ministers being chaired by the then-President to discuss the approval of a Russian ambassador to Burkina Faso and appointing ministerial roles to that Russian ambassador.
- 14 July 22 - Burkina-Russia coalition attempting to speed up the process and partner with Russia.
- 28/29 July 22 - Russian soldiers received medals from Brig. General Gilbert Ouedraogo and a declaration by Lieutenant-Colonel Yves Didier Bamouni that the country would not sever ties with Russia.
- 4 August 22 - Article attempting to amplify news that then-president Damiba should partner with Russia instead of France to combat terrorism.

- Post-coup
- 3 October 2022 - Cameroonian, Malian and Central African media outlets all posted articles amplifying Traore's announcement on the state-affiliated Radio France Internationale that 'Russia is a partner of Burkina Faso, and the Burkinabe army used a lot of Russian arms and equipment'

![Wagner Mercenaries Operating in Mali](/uploads/Wagner_Mercenaries_Operating_in_Mali_76eab0e16e.png)

### So?
With the reported losses for Wagner in Ukraine already at a staggering level, and their now desperate drive to recruit untrained soldiers from the Russian prison system (up to 40,000 prisoners in Ukraine), are they capable of finishing what has been started across Africa? In previous sponsored coups, Wagner have operated as if somehow separate to the Russian Federation. We know this to be false but with mercenary actions now overtly promoted by the Kremlin (maybe not for Soledar), how will the Russian leadership be able to pull of clandestine activity whilst also defending their line of "it wasn't us"?

There are no Wagner boots on the ground in Burkina Faso...yet. It seems that there are new reports daily indicating that Wagner will continue their nefarious African conquest. They have been to Mozambique, CAR, Libya, Sudan, and Mali. After this coup it appears that Niger will be next. We would not be surprised to see Wagner mercenaries on the ground in Burkina Faso in the not too distant future.


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Wagner PMC are present in Africa and appear to show no sign of stopping, but will their losses in Ukraine and prison system recruitment drive impede them from finishing what they started?

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