Over the past week, Russian forces have taken heavy losses on the Robotyne-Verbove axis, most notably, losing ground at Robotyne and on the outskirts of Verbove.

Given the immense pressure of the Ukrainian effort in this sector and recent Russian withdrawals, it is likely that Novoprokopivka will be liberated in the next four days.

In response, disparate Russian units, many of which are chronically undermanned and undersupplied, have been 'stacked' to the south of Robotyne and to the west of Verbove.

This 'stacking' is an attempt to provide defense in depth and buy exhausted Russian units a few days to recuperate. But it has also forced Russia to commit units from elsewhere along the front, leaving their flanks particularly vulnerable.

Prominent Russian milbloggers have also stated that several Russian units have refused to take up positions on the frontline. This likely factored in the decision to reinforce the sector with elements of the 76th Guards Air Assault Division, the same unit that committed atrocities in Bucha.

Being an airborne force, the 76th is doctrinally designed for rapid, lightly armored maneuver warfare. It is poorly suited to the intense, static and defensive fighting that is now expected of them. This presents an ideal chance for Ukrainian forces to severely deplete the 76th.

![Robotyne 090123.png](/uploads/Robotyne_090123_42fe78586d.png)

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Robotyne

Russian forces continue to retreat and lose ground around Robotyne.

Robotyne-Verbove Update

A mix of Russian soldiers, conscripts, and mercenaries advance over the corpses of their fallen comrades in pursuit of claiming the Ukrainian salt-mining town of Soledar as their own.

"Russia is driving its own people to the slaughter by the thousands" Hanna Malyar, Ukraine's Deputy Defense Minister claims as Russian forces continue their relentless war of attrition, although recent reports show a decrease of up to 75% in the number of kinetic munitions used by Russian artillery on the eastern Ukrainian front.

Russia's Wagner mercenaries, headed by Yevginiy Prigozhin, claim to have taken control of all of Soledar, though this is strongly disputed by Ukrainian officials, and by trusted and verified OSINT channnels.

The ISW assess that Russian forces have clearly not captured Soledar despite multiple claims from Russian sources. Many Russian milbloggers claim that the capture of Soledar will lead to the encirclement of Bakhmut and its demise. This is false. Russian forces remain a significant distance from severing the Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) needed to encircle Bakhmut. The Russian offensive, specifically on Bakhmut, is likely to culminate imminently due to heavily degraded resources and faltering resupply. Russia can't sustain their own attrition. 

![Aerial Imagery of the Destruction of Soledar Infrastructure](/uploads/Aerial_Imagery_of_the_Destruction_of_Soledar_Infrastructure_d1c76ff0b9.png)

#### Why Soledar? Why The Eastern Axis?
One of Putin's main goals is the illegal seizure of the Donbas region, made up of the Donetsk and Luhanks Oblasts. Capturing Bakhumt, and Soledar - known for its salt and gypsum mines, would give Russia and the Wagner Group a rare victory after their embarrassing withdrawals from Kharkiv and Kerson a few months ago. It is important to note that Bakhmut and Soledar are only considered 'strategic' locations due to the lack of victories elsewhere for the Russian military.

#### Eastern Front Continued
With this push for Bakhmut and Soledar, Russia has also allocated additional VDV forces to reinforce the Kreminna front. The eastern axis is set to become significantly more volatile over the next few weeks as Russia expend more men towards these locations while Ukraine defiantly defend ground which they have retaken.

We will pay close attention to developments on the eastern front over the next few days.

Aerial Imagery of the Destruction of Soledar

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A mix of Russian soldiers, conscripts, and mercenaries advance over the corpses of their fallen comrades in pursuit of claiming the Ukrainian salt-mining town of Soledar as their own.

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