As rumors of a potential ceasefire negotiation swirl, with reports emerging that The Vatican has offered to host talks between the warring parties, our investigative team has taken a closer look at the situation on the ground. Despite whispers of a possible peace deal, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine rages on, with both sides suffering heavy losses. 

In a significant development, Russian President Vladimir Putin made his first visit to Kursk Oblast since Ukrainian forces were pushed back in March. The region, in the west of Russia, was occupied by Ukrainian troops for several months before Russian forces attempted to reclaim the area. It is currently contested between the two states as Russia tries to finish repelling the Ukrainian attack across the region. Putin's visit comes as a clear indication that Russia is committed to maintaining control over the territory, as well as trying to diminish Ukraine's position in and negotiations.

Since Putin's visit, the conflict continues to escalate, with Russia launching barrages of artillery shelling against Ukrainian territory, particularly in the Kherson region. According to the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Russian aviation has also carried out airstrikes on multiple locations. 

Ukraine is employing a multi-faceted approach to counter Russian aggression, utilizing aviation, anti-aircraft missiles, electronic warfare and unmanned systems units to repel attacks. Ukrainian military efforts have been crucial in holding back the relentless Russian advance. However, in light of Russia's overwhelming numerical advantage the situation remains difficult. 

Ukraine isn't only defending against Russia, but is also taking the fight to them, making strong use of drones. These have caused problems for the Kremlin as airports have been forced to close in the capital, Moscow. Drones have also targeted factories that are used to fuel Russia's war, such as a semi-conductor plant in Oryal Oblast, that makes parts for war planes and missiles.

Furthermore, Russia continues to cover up it's true losses in terms of military casualties in the conflict. With minimal training, resources and depleted morale, Russian soldiers are continually thrown into so-called 'meat assaults' in vain attempts to gain small amounts of territory. For Russia, at the negotiating table, every piece of ground helps with regards to bolstering their position. 

Witnesses on the ground describe ill-prepared Russian troops moving like zombies, suffering with the effects of war, malnourishment and lack of leadership in the field. Recent reporting from the Ukraine shows that in the last two months alone, around 61,000 casualties have been incurred whilst trying to capture Ukrainian territory. 

As the conflict continues to take a devastating toll on human lives, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has emphasized the need for international support. In a conversation with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, Zelensky stressed that the engagement of major powers, including France, Germany, the UK, Italy and the US, is crucial in bringing an end to the war. 

As the world watches, our investigative team will continue to provide in-depth coverage of the conflict, spreading light on the human cost of the war and the efforts being made to bring it to an end. With the situation on the ground remaining fluid and unpredictable, one thing is clear: the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is far from over.

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We investigate the current state of affairs on the battlefield. 

Russian Intensifies Attacks on Ukraine 

Russia's dependence on North Korea is an illustration of desperation and failure in its military endeavors. Despite its boasts of military power, Russia's reliance on North Korea for ammunition and troops is a clear indication of its own military shortcomings and has exposed significant vulnerabilities in Russia's military. The fact that Russia has been forced to turn to a country with a relatively underdeveloped military like North Korea highlights the extent of its own capabilities' decline. This partnership may not be a game-changer for Russia, as Russia hoped, but rather a reflection of its own weakness. Ultimately, the developing Russia-North Korea partnership is a symptom of a larger problem - Russia's inability to achieve its military objectives through its own strength. As the conflict in Ukraine continues to drag on, it remains to be seen how long Russia can sustain its military efforts without a significant overhaul of its military strategy and capabilities.

## The Alliance
The Russia-North Korea relationship has been years in the making. Initially Russia's offers to North Korea were limited to economic assistance and diplomatic support. However, as the years passed, their economic ties have deepened, and Russia has become one of North Korea's primary trading partners. The 2010s saw a significant expansion of their cooperation, with joint ventures and diplomatic exchanges becoming increasingly common.

Today through collaborative efforts, Russia and North Korea are able to provide each other with vital support addressing critical needs that bolster their respective global standings. Russia benefits from North Korea's help in alleviating ammunition shortages, while North Korea gains access to advanced technology, allowing both nations to strengthen their positions on the world stage.

## Munitions
Driven by Russia's military struggles in Ukraine, North Korea has reportedly supplied Russia with at least 2.8 million artillery shells, and ballistic missiles to help alleviate its ammunition shortages. Reportedly half of Russia's shells used in Ukraine are from North Korea.

Dozens of ballistic missiles have also been supplied to Russia to damage and destroy cities in Ukraine, however there have been concerns about the quality of the ammunition. Approximately half of the North Korean missiles fired by Russia have malfunctioned and exploded mid-air, questioning their reliability.

In return, Russia has provided North Korea with resources such as food and energy, and has reportedly provided technologies for nuclear weapons and submarine missile launch systems which has supported North Korea in evading sanctions.

## Troop Deployment
There are reports that North Korea has deployed close to 11,000 troops to support Russian forces, however North Korea denied these reports despite proof of troops fighting near Sudzha.

## Troop Effectiveness
There are concerns regarding the effectiveness of North Korean troops and reports question the quality of training received by these soldiers. An ex North Korean soldier who defected to the United States warned that the troops would not be ready for battle due to a lack of training, and highlighted that North Korea had never fought in a major conflict.

Coming from an isolated nation, North Korean soldiers will face significant challenges in Ukraine due to their limited familiarity with the country and its terrain. Their military training has primarily taken place in the mountainous regions of North Korea, leaving them unprepared for the vastly different landscape of Ukraine's flat and expansive battlefields.

According to reports, North Korean soldiers in Russia have been equipped with advanced technology including night-vision goggles, thermal-imaging devices and illuminated gun sights. However, this may create challenges for the troops, as they are not accustomed to training with such equipment in North Korea. Additionally, they are fighting in a war where the use of drones is prevalent, which is another unfamiliar technology that may require significant adjustment.

Growing up in a country with limited food availability may potentially leave North Korean soldiers vulnerable to malnutrition. And the lack of mixing with other countries mean they may be vulnerable to illness as they come into contact with new people. South Korean researchers found that defectors from North Korea have higher rates of hepatitis B and C, tuberculosis and parasites.

Furthermore, language barriers have reportedly hindered communication between North Korean soldiers and their Russian counterparts, potentially compromising training and joint military operations. This communication gap may pose significant challenges on the battlefield where clear and effective communication is critical.

## Conclusion
Russia has repeatedly relied on undertrained personnel, 'cannon fodder', to compensate for its military's skill and training deficiencies since the onset of the conflict. The Russian military has faced significant challenges in training its own personnel, which raises concerns about its capacity to provide adequate training to North Korean troops. Given these limitations, it is unlikely that Russia will be able to train North Korean forces to a satisfactory level of proficiency. It is likely that Russia is seeking to augment its numbers with troops from North Korea, who would be used to supplement its existing forces and mitigate losses incurred in Ukraine. This decision may be intended to enable Russia to continue its high-risk, high-casualty assaults, where the primary objective is to overwhelm enemy positions through sheer numbers rather than tactical finesse.

North Korea's pursuit of resources and partnerships has driven them to Russia, but this collaboration may come with a cost. Russia will likely use North Korean soldiers for their assaults as they did previously with Wagner and convicts, which would leave North Korea to bear the brunt of casualties. This would raise questions about the true benefits of this alliance for North Korea, as their military personnel would likely be put in serious harm's way.

Meanwhile, Russia's desperation for additional manpower has led them to seek out a partnership with a problematic ally, highlights the weaknesses in their position in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. This move suggests that Russia's military strength and international standing may be more tenuous than it appears, as they resort to collaboration with a regime like North Korea, in order to bolster their illegal invasion of Ukraine. Avoiding depletion of their military capability beyond recoverable levels will be of key importance to Russia as the conflict progresses.

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Discussing Russia's reliance on North Korea for its illegal invasion of Ukraine. 

North Korean Troops: From Pyongyang to the Front Line

Over the past week, Russian forces have taken heavy losses on the Robotyne-Verbove axis, most notably, losing ground at Robotyne and on the outskirts of Verbove.

Given the immense pressure of the Ukrainian effort in this sector and recent Russian withdrawals, it is likely that Novoprokopivka will be liberated in the next four days.

In response, disparate Russian units, many of which are chronically undermanned and undersupplied, have been 'stacked' to the south of Robotyne and to the west of Verbove.

This 'stacking' is an attempt to provide defense in depth and buy exhausted Russian units a few days to recuperate. But it has also forced Russia to commit units from elsewhere along the front, leaving their flanks particularly vulnerable.

Prominent Russian milbloggers have also stated that several Russian units have refused to take up positions on the frontline. This likely factored in the decision to reinforce the sector with elements of the 76th Guards Air Assault Division, the same unit that committed atrocities in Bucha.

Being an airborne force, the 76th is doctrinally designed for rapid, lightly armored maneuver warfare. It is poorly suited to the intense, static and defensive fighting that is now expected of them. This presents an ideal chance for Ukrainian forces to severely deplete the 76th.

![Robotyne 090123.png](/uploads/Robotyne_090123_42fe78586d.png)

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Robotyne

Russian forces continue to retreat and lose ground around Robotyne.

Robotyne-Verbove Update

A mix of Russian soldiers, conscripts, and mercenaries advance over the corpses of their fallen comrades in pursuit of claiming the Ukrainian salt-mining town of Soledar as their own.

"Russia is driving its own people to the slaughter by the thousands" Hanna Malyar, Ukraine's Deputy Defense Minister claims as Russian forces continue their relentless war of attrition, although recent reports show a decrease of up to 75% in the number of kinetic munitions used by Russian artillery on the eastern Ukrainian front.

Russia's Wagner mercenaries, headed by Yevginiy Prigozhin, claim to have taken control of all of Soledar, though this is strongly disputed by Ukrainian officials, and by trusted and verified OSINT channnels.

The ISW assess that Russian forces have clearly not captured Soledar despite multiple claims from Russian sources. Many Russian milbloggers claim that the capture of Soledar will lead to the encirclement of Bakhmut and its demise. This is false. Russian forces remain a significant distance from severing the Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) needed to encircle Bakhmut. The Russian offensive, specifically on Bakhmut, is likely to culminate imminently due to heavily degraded resources and faltering resupply. Russia can't sustain their own attrition. 

![Aerial Imagery of the Destruction of Soledar Infrastructure](/uploads/Aerial_Imagery_of_the_Destruction_of_Soledar_Infrastructure_d1c76ff0b9.png)

#### Why Soledar? Why The Eastern Axis?
One of Putin's main goals is the illegal seizure of the Donbas region, made up of the Donetsk and Luhanks Oblasts. Capturing Bakhumt, and Soledar - known for its salt and gypsum mines, would give Russia and the Wagner Group a rare victory after their embarrassing withdrawals from Kharkiv and Kerson a few months ago. It is important to note that Bakhmut and Soledar are only considered 'strategic' locations due to the lack of victories elsewhere for the Russian military.

#### Eastern Front Continued
With this push for Bakhmut and Soledar, Russia has also allocated additional VDV forces to reinforce the Kreminna front. The eastern axis is set to become significantly more volatile over the next few weeks as Russia expend more men towards these locations while Ukraine defiantly defend ground which they have retaken.

We will pay close attention to developments on the eastern front over the next few days.

Aerial Imagery of the Destruction of Soledar

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A mix of Russian soldiers, conscripts, and mercenaries advance over the corpses of their fallen comrades in pursuit of claiming the Ukrainian salt-mining town of Soledar as their own.

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Russian Intensifies Attacks on Ukraine

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North Korean Troops: From Pyongyang to the Front Line

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