It's been 6 months since Russian forces embarked on their offensive for Bakhmut. 6 months and they are yet to take the city. 6 months and they have resorted to replacing the dead with more Wagner mercenaries, more mass-mobilized conscripts, and more prisoners. Is this poorly managed offensive really worth it? Or do the Russian seniors continue to throw men towards this apparent 'strategic' location in order to maintain some form of face after their embarrassing retreats from Kharkiv and Kherson?

## What Has Happened So Far?
A key Russian goal of the illegal 'Special Military Operation' was to capture the Donbas region, firmly controlling Luhansk and Donetsk. The early battles for Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk were successful for the Russian forces, resulting in the full control of Luhansk Oblast. The focus then shifted towards the cities of Sloviansk, Soledar, and Bakhmut - all located on strategic supply lines between Donetsk and Luhansk. In mid-August, Ukrainian Brigadier General Tarnavskiy assessed that Russia had a 5-to-1 manpower advantage over the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the Eastern Axis. **NOTE - As of January 12, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are still here.**

### August
The Russian Armed Forces launched their main ground attack on the settlements to the south and southeast of Bakhmut. Airstrikes and shelling of the largely civilian occupied city significantly increased until August 4 when Wagner mercenaries pushed through Ukrainian defenses only to reach Patrice Lumumba street on the eastern outskirts of Bakhmut.

Russian forces continued their kinetic shelling of Bakhmut resulting in the deaths of 7 civilians and injuring 6 more. Infrastructure was flattened and the Russian forces pushed towards Bakhmut from the south. The Ukrainian general staff assessed that as of August 14 Russian forces had achieved 'partial success' near Bakhmut. **NOTE - This was 6 months ago and Ukrainian forces are still here.**

Wagner forces were heavily bolstered by prisoners recruited from multiple Russian penal facilities. https://twitter.com/WhereisRussia/status/1592172255081013250

![Ukraine/Russia Conflict Map 0908.png](/uploads/0908_6dad6dd49c.png)

### October
October 7, Russian forces furthered their advancement into the settlements of Zaitseve and Opytne to the south and southeast of Bakhmut although these villages and some factories were fiercely contested by Ukrainian Armed Forces.

![Ukraine/Russia Conflict Map 1007.png](/uploads/1007_517107168b.png)

### November
On November 10, Ukrainian Armed Forces reported that the Russian Wagner Group suffered almost 140 casualties in just 24 hours and that the fighting in and around Bakhmut had descended into trench warfare in which both sides continue to attack, counter, and dig in until one prevails.

November 28, Russian forces finally broke through the Ukrainian defensive lines south of Bakhmut where they advanced through Optyne, but still made minimal and slow gains, only capturing settlements of Andriivka, Ozarianivka, and Zelenopillia.

### December
Serhii Cherevatyi, a spokesperson for Ukraine's Eastern Command stated on December 3 that the Bakhmut front was "the most bloody, cruel and brutal sector in the Russian-Ukrainian war so far". He claimed that the Russian Armed Forces had "conducted 261 attacks with artillery of various calibers in the past 24 hours alone". **NOTE - Ukrainian forces are still there, and still defending against this brutality.**

December 9, Russian forces continued to probe at peripheral settlements to Bakhmut. Ukrainian forces successfully repelled attacks near Klishchiivka and Druzhba as Russian shelling continued.  One Ukrainian serviceman stated that remaining civilians, likely just surviving in basements, are not anti-Russian. Russian narratives continue to claim the Special Military Operation is to 'liberate', why then does Russia continue its war of attrition on people it considers its 'own'?

December 13, Russian sources claimed that urban street fighting had begun in the eastern and southeastern areas of Bakhmut. The Ukrainian forces successfully countered the Russian advances and pushed Wagner forces back to the eastern outskirts of the Fyodor Maksimenko area on 18 December. At this time, the Ukrainian Joint Forces Task Force were reportedly repelling 5-7 advancing Russian units around Bakhmut per day and claimed to have an abundance of drones for surveillance allowing rapid responses to these Russian patrols on the outskirts and in the eastern industrial zone in particular.

Zelenskyy visited the Bakhmut front on 20/21 December while the shelling and bombardment continued on the outskirts. Wagner mercenaries continued to probe at Bakhmutske, Pidhorodne and Klishciivka on the northeastern and southwestern flanks of Bakhmut while the Ukrainian Armed Forces valiantly held the area to the north of Optyne, halting any southern Russian advances. On 26 December, the governor of Donetsk, Pavlo Kyrylenko, assessed that over 60% of Bakhmut's infrastructure was destroyed.

The Institute for the Study of War determined that Russia's advance on Bakhmut had 'culminated' by 28 December, assessing that Russian Armed Forces, and Wagner mercenaries, were unable to continue their assaults/shelling of Bakhmut at the scale they had been operating at over the last number of months.

![Ukraine/Russia Conflict Map 1209.png](/uploads/1209_939d180ddf.png)

### January
In early January, the Kyiv Independent stated that "The Battle of Bakhmut is likely culminating" with Ukraine successfully defending against illegal annexation. #BakhmutHolds.

## Why Continue in Bakhmut?
"It's about the money" said retired Ukrainian colonel, Serhiy Grabskiy, now a military analyst in Kyiv. The Wagner Group were assigned the task of capturing Bakhmut for the Kremlin, and in doing so will likely receive a substantial financial reward, perhaps a share of profits from the salt and gypsum mines if they ever succeed in taking them? Something that Yevgeniy Prigozhin would not be able to overlook, regardless of the significant number of Russian lives lost in doing so. Is financial gain worth that many Russian lives?

![Bakhmut Infrastructure.png](/uploads/Bakhmut_Infrastructure_7bf0c6fc88.png)

Grabskiy concludes that "the only part of the long front where Russia appears to have the capacity to go on the offensive is around Bakhmut, and it's important for the military to provide a battlefield success for Putin". The mass surrender of territory in Kharkiv and the complete withdrawal from Kherson has meant that Bakhmut is the only potential target the Kremlin would deem successful if ever it became occupied by Russian forces. Bakhmut's strategic importance is exaggerated by failures elsewhere in Ukraine.

Countless Russian lives lost in pursuit of a target that has become more strategic as the war develops. Time will tell to see if the Russian seniors, 'safe' in the Kremlin, 800km away, will continue to send their men to their slaughter for this city.

Meanwhile. Bakhmut Holds.

large_Bakhmut Aerial Shot.png

medium_Bakhmut Aerial Shot.png

small_Bakhmut Aerial Shot.png

thumbnail_Bakhmut Aerial Shot.png

Bakhmut Aerial Craters

800km away, the Kremlin continues to send men to their slaughter for the city of Bakhmut.

The Battle For Bakhmut

The 1st Guards Tank Army (1GTA) is a tank army of the Russian Ground Forces and part of the Western Military District. It was originally formed within the Soviet Red Army as the 1st Mechanized Army in June 1940, and served during the German-Soviet War at the Battle of Moscow and the Battle of Kursk. It was disbanded in 1998 after being reduced in strength, but reformed in 2014 with new units added and expanded to become an army once again.

The army is considered to be amongst the **ELITE** of the Russian Ground Forces and is comprised of the 2nd Motorized Division (Tamanskaya) and the 4th Tank Division (Kantemirovskaya) which are considered to be **ELITE** divisions consisting of **ELITE** regiments. They are garrisoned closest to Moscow and are considered highly prestigious postings, allocated for the defense of Moscow, and to be tasked with leading counter-attacks against NATO if that scenario should ever arise. The regiments and units within the divisions are given the most up-to-date state of the art software and tech and are known as the 'household' divisions of the Russian Army. The latest T-14 'Armata' 5th-generation tanks were to be supplied to the 1GTA with 100 being allegedly procured in 2016 and delivered by 2020. These are yet to be seen on the battlefield with the program being fully halted until 2025, although they do look good driving down the streets of Moscow in parades.

![Russian T-14](/uploads/T_14_d363dee8e3.png)

In 2015, Zvezda wrote a piece about the 1GTA titled the 'New Russian Divisions Are The Hammer That Will Break Any Defense'. Hammers are normally made of steel but the 1GTA appear to have been made of glass, shiny and brilliant on the surface, a Russian military facade. Should the 1GTA be renamed to 'Potemkin's Hammer Army'?

At the start of the invasion in February 2022, the 1GTA took part in the northeastern Ukraine offensive with the 2nd Guards Motorized Rifle Division taking part in the failed siege of Chernihiv. After just 3 weeks in Ukraine, the 1GTA had lost 409 men and 308 units of military equipment.

![Destroyed Russian Tank](/uploads/Destroyed_tank_64573a95a1.png)

On May 19 2022 the 1GTA army commander General-Lieutenant Sergey Kisel was suspended for his failure to capture Kharkiv. Then, on September 13 2022, the 1GTA were identified as being the primary Russian force that retreated from Kharkiv Oblast as a result of the successful Ukrainian counteroffensive. The 1GTA are now considered to be severely degraded and would likely be unable to counter further Ukrainian counteroffensives.

Where is Russia Today?

Military

Military

The Battle For Bakhmut

Military

The Bodyguards Of Moscow

Military

Latest Video

Social