### Congratulations
On September 30, the President of Burkina Faso Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba was removed in a coup d'etat by his own military colleague Ibrahim Traore. Damiba was in power for just 8 months, after he had previously removed President Roch Marc Christian Kabore...in a coup.

This is the 10th coup in Burkina Faso since the country gained its independence in 1960. It's odd though, as this time around there were Russian flags being waved in the streets. Did Prigozhin or the Kremlin have something to do with this?

As you can imagine, this act was met with condemnation from the UN, African Union, the European Union and the West African confederation ECOWAS. Yevgeny Prigozhin however, praised Traore announcing "I congratulate and support Captain Ibrahim Traore...he is a truly worthy and courageous son of his homeland". He may well have had something to do with this.

It doesn't appear as though there were any overt influence campaigns being carried out by Wagner in Burkina Faso. However a look into the online stats and analytics on social media show that more was happening in cyberspace than on the ground.

### Analysis
The Africa Data and Democracy Observatory (ADDO) carried out research and highlighted a number of findings:
- Coordinated campaigns were run ahead of the coup targeting the previous President with narratives suggesting that the existing junta were collaborating with the French when they should be seeking a new relationship with Russia, or the Wagner group, as they are anti-colonial. The campaign cited Wagner's alleged 'successful' role in Mali.
- Growing support for Wagner was observed from nano-influencers. TikTok streamers posted content claiming how 'great' Wagner or other Russian involvement would be in Burkina Faso to counter apparent French colonial influence. They appeared to explicitly criticize then-President Damiba as a French puppet. 
- A Pro-Kremlin Russian Telegram channel posted messages claiming that 'Niger and its uranium mines are next in line'. This appears to imply that Russia will be moving onto Niger next after 'successfully' assisting with the coup in Burkina Faso.

![Wagner Operations in Africa](/uploads/Wagner_Operations_in_Africa_7c0e2004a2.png)

### Social Media Tracking
The ADDO tracked articles that were posted in local media and related to Russia before the coup (1 June 2022 - 29 September 2022). Here's what they discovered:
- There were several key spikes
- 21 June 22 - Pro-Russian demonstration at Place Tiefo Amoro.
- 6 July 22 - Large number of articles published online due to the council of ministers being chaired by the then-President to discuss the approval of a Russian ambassador to Burkina Faso and appointing ministerial roles to that Russian ambassador.
- 14 July 22 - Burkina-Russia coalition attempting to speed up the process and partner with Russia.
- 28/29 July 22 - Russian soldiers received medals from Brig. General Gilbert Ouedraogo and a declaration by Lieutenant-Colonel Yves Didier Bamouni that the country would not sever ties with Russia.
- 4 August 22 - Article attempting to amplify news that then-president Damiba should partner with Russia instead of France to combat terrorism.

- Post-coup
- 3 October 2022 - Cameroonian, Malian and Central African media outlets all posted articles amplifying Traore's announcement on the state-affiliated Radio France Internationale that 'Russia is a partner of Burkina Faso, and the Burkinabe army used a lot of Russian arms and equipment'

![Wagner Mercenaries Operating in Mali](/uploads/Wagner_Mercenaries_Operating_in_Mali_76eab0e16e.png)

### So?
With the reported losses for Wagner in Ukraine already at a staggering level, and their now desperate drive to recruit untrained soldiers from the Russian prison system (up to 40,000 prisoners in Ukraine), are they capable of finishing what has been started across Africa? In previous sponsored coups, Wagner have operated as if somehow separate to the Russian Federation. We know this to be false but with mercenary actions now overtly promoted by the Kremlin (maybe not for Soledar), how will the Russian leadership be able to pull of clandestine activity whilst also defending their line of "it wasn't us"?

There are no Wagner boots on the ground in Burkina Faso...yet. It seems that there are new reports daily indicating that Wagner will continue their nefarious African conquest. They have been to Mozambique, CAR, Libya, Sudan, and Mali. After this coup it appears that Niger will be next. We would not be surprised to see Wagner mercenaries on the ground in Burkina Faso in the not too distant future.


small_Russian and Burkanese Flag.png

thumbnail_Russian and Burkanese Flag.png

Russian and Burkanese Flag.png

Wagner PMC are present in Africa and appear to show no sign of stopping, but will their losses in Ukraine and prison system recruitment drive impede them from finishing what they started?

Wagner Continue Through Africa

A mix of Russian soldiers, conscripts, and mercenaries advance over the corpses of their fallen comrades in pursuit of claiming the Ukrainian salt-mining town of Soledar as their own.

"Russia is driving its own people to the slaughter by the thousands" Hanna Malyar, Ukraine's Deputy Defense Minister claims as Russian forces continue their relentless war of attrition, although recent reports show a decrease of up to 75% in the number of kinetic munitions used by Russian artillery on the eastern Ukrainian front.

Russia's Wagner mercenaries, headed by Yevginiy Prigozhin, claim to have taken control of all of Soledar, though this is strongly disputed by Ukrainian officials, and by trusted and verified OSINT channnels.

The ISW assess that Russian forces have clearly not captured Soledar despite multiple claims from Russian sources. Many Russian milbloggers claim that the capture of Soledar will lead to the encirclement of Bakhmut and its demise. This is false. Russian forces remain a significant distance from severing the Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) needed to encircle Bakhmut. The Russian offensive, specifically on Bakhmut, is likely to culminate imminently due to heavily degraded resources and faltering resupply. Russia can't sustain their own attrition. 

![Aerial Imagery of the Destruction of Soledar Infrastructure](/uploads/Aerial_Imagery_of_the_Destruction_of_Soledar_Infrastructure_d1c76ff0b9.png)

#### Why Soledar? Why The Eastern Axis?
One of Putin's main goals is the illegal seizure of the Donbas region, made up of the Donetsk and Luhanks Oblasts. Capturing Bakhumt, and Soledar - known for its salt and gypsum mines, would give Russia and the Wagner Group a rare victory after their embarrassing withdrawals from Kharkiv and Kerson a few months ago. It is important to note that Bakhmut and Soledar are only considered 'strategic' locations due to the lack of victories elsewhere for the Russian military.

#### Eastern Front Continued
With this push for Bakhmut and Soledar, Russia has also allocated additional VDV forces to reinforce the Kreminna front. The eastern axis is set to become significantly more volatile over the next few weeks as Russia expend more men towards these locations while Ukraine defiantly defend ground which they have retaken.

We will pay close attention to developments on the eastern front over the next few days.

Aerial Imagery of the Destruction of Soledar

medium_Aerial Imagery of the Destruction of Soledar

small_Aerial Imagery of the Destruction of Soledar

thumbnail_Aerial Imagery of the Destruction of Soledar

A mix of Russian soldiers, conscripts, and mercenaries advance over the corpses of their fallen comrades in pursuit of claiming the Ukrainian salt-mining town of Soledar as their own.

The Eastern Axis - Soledar

Data released on the numbers of missiles used by Russia during it's invasion of Ukraine along with data on those remaining, points towards an upcoming critical shortage that is likely to limit any Russian plans for any future offensive, and this could lead to Russia losing more territory to a Ukrainian forces.

In November, Ukraine's Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov released data on Russian stocks of precision weapons and the amounts used during the first 9 months of the war. Calculating a monthly rate of expenditure from this data shows that Russia is likely to run out of its most high-precision weapons by Spring 2023 which will severely impact the chance of success of any Russian Spring offensive; this will mean that they will struggle to hold on to captured territory.

Below is a table which shows the data released and the calculated consumption rates and forecast expenditure of each munition:

|Missile|Stock|Produced|Expended|Remaining|Monthly Rate|Months Left|Forecast Usage of All Stock|
|-------|-------|----------|----------|------------|--------------|--------------|------------------------------|
|Iskander|	900	|48		|829	|	119		|92		|1.3		|December 2022|
|3M-55 Onyx	|470	|-		|123	|	347		|14		|24.8		|December 2024|
|S-300	|	8000	|-		|1020		|6980	|	113	|	61.8	|	January 2028|
|Kalibr	|	500	|120|		391		|229|		43	|	5.3		|April 2023|
|Kh-101		|144	|120	|	132	|	132	|	15	|	9	|	August 2023|
|Kh-555		|300	|-		|150	|	150	|	17	|	9	|	August 2023|
|Kh-22/32	|370|	-	|	250	|	120	|	28	|	4.3	|	March 2023|
|Kh-35	|	500	|360	|	504	|	356	|	56	|	6.4	|	May 2023|
|Kh-47M2 Kinzhal	|43	|16		|16		|43	|	2	|	21.5	|	September 2024|


The above figures are approximations and are calculated assuming that expenditure continues at the same rate as that seen during the first 9 months of the war. Rationing the use of ammunition would obviously extend the duration that remaining stocks will last for, this in itself will impact the ability of the Russians to effectively support their armed forces and would likely increase the attrition of troops and equipment as they suffer due to inadequate fire support.

![Russian missile arsenal](/uploads/Russian_missile_arsenal_60b68b2bc5.png)

Another sign that Russia's stock of precision missiles is running dangerously low is the repurposing of air defense and anti ship missiles into a ground attack role. These systems are ill-suited for use against ground targets, lacking the firepower and accuracy. The only real utility of repurposed weapons is for indiscriminate strikes against population centers, or for use as decoys when used alongside precision munitions; but crucially they will be of limited use against mobile military targets when trying to capture or defend territory.

![Clearly not a military target](/uploads/Clearly_not_a_military_target_0a8d4e5786.png)

Sources reported in late November that Russia was utilizing ageing cruise missiles stripped of their nuclear warheads also drawing the conclusion that stocks of conventional missiles were depleted.  It was suspected that the nuclear warheads of the AS-15 Kent air-launched cruise missiles had been replaced with ballast.  This again highlights the desperation of the Russian armed forces with the statement saying that “Although such an inert system will still produce some damage through the missile’s kinetic energy and any unspent fuel, it is unlikely to achieve reliable effects against intended targets". The less advanced these missiles are, the more the circular error probable (CEP) increases, meaning the less precise they become. Overall this will likely lead to more un-specific targets being struck by Russian kinetic strikes in the future as stocks wither away throughout the winter.

Where is Russia Today?

News

Wagner Continue Through Africa

News

Wagner Continue Through Africa

News

Wagner Continue Through Africa

News

News

Wagner Continue Through Africa

News

The Eastern Axis - Soledar

News

The Decline of Russia's Missile Stock

News

Latest Video

Social